(New York, NY) Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase recently cautioned that the US and the world would face a recession in the next 6-9 months. And if the UK’s cost-of-living crisis is any indicator, some consumers may soon be pinching pennies to afford everyday expenses. Auriemma Group recently conducted research in both regions and found that 55% of US credit cardholders and a staggering 83% of credit cardholders in the UK say rising costs will have a negative impact on their finances in the next 12 months.
Rising food and fuel costs are already having a significant negative impact on half of US cardholders, and these consumers anticipate costs to swell further over the next year. Looking to the UK, these impacts are even greater, with about nine-in ten (88%) reporting a negative impact from rising food costs and 81% saying the same about fuel.
“We’ve been studying changes to consumer spending and borrowing behavior throughout the cost-of-living crisis in the UK and believe those shifts may be predictive of things to come on our side of the pond,” says Jaclyn Holmes, Director of Research at Auriemma Group. “Navigating these increasing costs comes at a price for many, particularly those with heavier debt loads or fixed incomes.”
According to Auriemma’s research, US cardholders are already acting in response to rising costs. Over the past 6 months 52% curbed non-essential spending, 36% sought out more sale items than usual, and 33% switched to more affordable brands.
While often opaque to cardholders, the economic outlook due to the impacts of inflation, rising interest rates, and Russia’s war with Ukraine may cause these measures to intensify. In the UK, tensions are already hitting a fever-pitch with some activists going as far as flinging tomato soup at a Van Gough painting to draw attention to the impact of fossil fuels, but also rising costs.
“These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” Dimon said.
US cardholders agree with Dimon. Auriemma’s research found that 80% believe the US will enter a recession within the next 2 years. And this belief is changing attitudes towards spending. Over nine-in-ten of those who think it is ‘very likely’ that the US will enter a recession say they have changed their spending behavior because of rising costs.
“The UK’s cost-of-living crisis has gained media attention for the better part of the year, and the US may not be far behind,” says Holmes. “Dimon’s assertion highlights the delicate state of the economy, and US consumers have already begun to feel the effects. Looking to the UK as an example, US issuers and merchants can expect some notable changes to spending over the next year.”
Survey Methodology
Cardbeat US
This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the US by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma from August-September 2022, among 80o+ adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing between sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ± 5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed nor did the respondents know the criteria for qualification.
Cardbeat UK
This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the UK by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma from April-May 2022, among 80o+ adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing between sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ± 5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed nor did the respondents know the criteria for qualification.
(London, UK): Consumer expectations for future financial stability is worsening, with many looking to credit cards for support during the cost-of-living crisis. According to Auriemma Group’s latest issue of Cardbeat UK, 37% of cardholders believe their financial health will worsen in the next 6 months.
Gen Z and younger Millennials express greater optimism about their future financial health than their older counterparts despite increased levels of borrowing. Auriemma’s research found that 20% of cardholders are borrowing more to afford everything they need, rising to 32% among Gen Z and Millennials, and 33% of sub- and near-prime customers. The added strain of rising costs will likely cause these figures grow in the coming months.
“Since the start of the pandemic we have seen a resurgence in consumer spending on debit cards and a rise in transfers from savings to current accounts,” says Jaclyn Holmes, Director of Auriemma Research. “Today it appears rising inflation is furthering the strain on consumers, leading some to rely on their credit cards for essential spending.”
According to Auriemma’s latest findings, over 90% of credit cardholders anticipate rising costs of food, housing, fuel or energy bills to impact their personal finances negatively over the next 12 months. While energy prices were capped at £2,500 for 2 years beginning this month, some households may still see their bills double.
“At a time when all other costs are skyrocketing, the price cap will offer little comfort for many households,” says Holmes. “With more monthly outgoings attributed to energy bills, the pressure on credit card usage and borrowing will likely be even higher.”
But consumers aren’t the only ones bracing for impact. Issuers are also trying to assess how the cost-of-living crisis is currently impacting their cardholders and anticipate the enduring impact moving forward.
“Lenders have already begun seeing the operational impact of this change in customer behaviour,” says Louis Stevens, Director of Auriemma’s Industry Roundtables. “This comes at a time where regulatory initiatives, such as The Consumer Duty Act, are already taking up considerable time and resources.”
As issuers likely tighten risk criteria for customers seeking credit, some may turn to Prime and affluent customers for lower-risk lending opportunities. Auriemma Group will continue to monitor this space closely in upcoming Cardbeat studies and within its Customer Service Roundtable groups.
Survey Methodology
This Auriemma Research study was conducted online within the UK by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma from April-May 2022, among 80o+ adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed on a monthly basis is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing between sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ± 5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed nor did the respondents know the criteria for qualification.
About Auriemma Group
For more than 35 years, Auriemma’s mission has been to empower clients with authoritative data and actionable insights. Our team comprises recognised experts in four primary areas: operational effectiveness, consumer research, co-brand partnerships and corporate finance. Our business intelligence and advisory services give clients access to the data, expertise and tools they need to navigate an increasingly complex environment and maximise their performance. Auriemma serves the consumer financial services ecosystem from our offices in London and New York City. For more information, visit us at www.auriemma.group or call Jaclyn Holmes at +44 (0) 207 629 0075.
(London, UK): Rising costs for fuel, energy, food shops and housing are already impacting consumers around the UK, but many believe this is only the beginning. According to Auriemma Group’s latest issue of Cardbeat UK, 73% of credit cardholders expect the rising cost of living to have a negative impact on their personal finances over the next 12 months.
Others factors will further impact consumers, including the Bank of England’s forthcoming increased interest rates. Coupled with rises in the cost of living, these elements are set to put considerable strain on some UK cardholders.
“Rate increases will create added pressure on homeowners across the UK at a time of significant financial uncertainty,” says Jaclyn Holmes, Director of Research at Auriemma. “Meanwhile the volatility of the rental market is already putting a strain on those who do not own their own home.”
The rising costs of food, energy and fuel have impacted over eight-in-ten credit cardholders, and rising housing costs have impacted about six-in-ten. Auriemma’s research found that rising housing costs were of particular impact to Millennials, who more commonly rent—a cost that has increased 9.5% on average since 2021 according to the latest HomeLet Rental Index.
“These indicators are a sign that banks and lenders must ready themselves to provide additional support to struggling customers,” says Holmes. “When rising costs become insurmountable it often leads to cardholders making spending cuts, missing payments or even becoming delinquent.”
In fact, 67% of credit cardholders agree that they are already spending less on non-essential or luxury items due to the state of their finances. And four-in-ten say they are unable to afford a holiday, a figure that increases to 57% among sub-prime and near-prime customers.
“These changes in spending habits could have an impact on the retail, entertainment and travel sectors,” says Holmes. “This could be a considerable blow after such a short period of recovery following the start of the pandemic.”
Looking ahead, the cost of living crisis will have a notable impact on consumers. Auriemma’s research shows one-fifth of cardholders are already borrowing more to afford everything they need, and as prices increase Auriemma anticipates this figure to rise. Auriemma Group will continue to monitor this space closely in upcoming Cardbeat studies and within its Card Customer Service and Complaints roundtable.
Survey Methodology
This Auriemma Research study was conducted online within the UK by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma in April 2022, among 80o+ adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed on a monthly basis is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing between sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ± 5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed nor did the respondents know the criteria for qualification.
About Auriemma Group
For more than 35 years, Auriemma’s mission has been to empower clients with authoritative data and actionable insights. Our team comprises recognised experts in four primary areas: operational effectiveness, consumer research, co-brand partnerships and corporate finance. Our business intelligence and advisory services give clients access to the data, expertise and tools they need to navigate an increasingly complex environment and maximise their performance. Auriemma serves the consumer financial services ecosystem from our offices in London and New York City. For more information, visit us at www.auriemma.group or call Jaclyn Holmes at +44 (0) 207 629 0075.
(London, UK) Absence and attrition rates are on the rise for front-line agents working in financial services. Mental health concerns are a primary driver, forcing financial service providers to address a once-taboo workplace subject. According to members of Auriemma Group’s Customer Service and Complaints Roundtable, mental health is frequently the cause for taking time off or leaving the company entirely. This, in conjunction with recruitment challenges facing the industry, has made mental health and well-being a top priority for firms.
According to the researchers at the University College London (UCL), only 49% of working age adults say they feel in control of their mental health, down from 54% six months ago. The study also found that the proportion of people with symptoms of anxiety and depression is at its highest level in 11 months.
There are several reasons why mental health issues are growing at higher rates amongst front-line agents. Increasingly complex calls and a rise in vulnerable customer volume has taken its toll on the mental health of many agents. Concurrently, the cost-of-living crisis is placing more pressure on all consumers, which agents are also not immune from.
“This compounds when considering many are still working from home and missing out on the social elements of the workplace,” says Louis Stevens, Director of Auriemma Roundtables. “It is easy to see why many firms are in firefighting mode in terms of capacity planning.”
The combination of these factors has led to a marked increase in both attrition and absence rates. In 2021, Auriemma Group’s Customer Service and Complaints Roundtable members reported an average attrition rate of 23%, up from 16.5% in 2020. Mental health-related absence rates showed a similar trend up to 14%, in 2021 from 11% in 2020.
“The cost-of-living crisis will only put further stress on both customers and employees, meaning without sufficient support measures in the place, this trend will likely only worsen throughout 2022,” says Stevens.
To combat this, firms are taking a varied approach by making mental health resources more accessible, building overall engagement amongst their employees to improve job satisfaction and embedding mental health awareness into their company culture and rhetoric. Roundtable members have also reported more return-to-office strategies, which will help those who have not taken well to home-based work.
This is an area of focus within Auriemma Group’s Customer Service & Complaints and Collections & Recoveries Roundtables, both of which have upcoming in-person meetings at the Sheraton Grand in Edinburgh. The Collections and Recoveries meeting is scheduled for the 9th and 10th of June, and the Customer Service and Complaints Roundtable meeting will be on the 16th and 17th of June. If you are interested in attending either session, please contact roundtables@auriemma.group.
About Auriemma Group
For more than 35 years, Auriemma’s mission has been to empower clients with authoritative data and actionable insights. Our team comprises recognised experts in four primary areas: operational effectiveness, consumer research, co-brand partnerships and corporate finance. Our business intelligence and advisory services give clients access to the data, expertise and tools they need to navigate an increasingly complex environment and maximise their performance. Auriemma serves the consumer financial services ecosystem from our offices in London and New York City. For more information, visit us at www.auriemma.group or call Louis Stevens at +44 (0) 207 629 0075.