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Recession Concerns Spark Adjustments to Spending

(New York, NY) Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase recently cautioned that the US and the world would face a recession in the next 6-9 months. And if the UK’s cost-of-living crisis is any indicator, some consumers may soon be pinching pennies to afford everyday expenses. Auriemma Group recently conducted research in both regions and found that 55% of US credit cardholders and a staggering 83% of credit cardholders in the UK say rising costs will have a negative impact on their finances in the next 12 months.

Rising food and fuel costs are already having a significant negative impact on half of US cardholders, and these consumers anticipate costs to swell further over the next year. Looking to the UK, these impacts are even greater, with about nine-in ten (88%) reporting a negative impact from rising food costs and 81% saying the same about fuel.

“We’ve been studying changes to consumer spending and borrowing behavior throughout the cost-of-living crisis in the UK and believe those shifts may be predictive of things to come on our side of the pond,” says Jaclyn Holmes, Director of Research at Auriemma Group. “Navigating these increasing costs comes at a price for many, particularly those with heavier debt loads or fixed incomes.”

According to Auriemma’s research, US cardholders are already acting in response to rising costs. Over the past 6 months 52% curbed non-essential spending, 36% sought out more sale items than usual, and 33% switched to more affordable brands.

While often opaque to cardholders, the economic outlook due to the impacts of inflation, rising interest rates, and Russia’s war with Ukraine may cause these measures to intensify. In the UK, tensions are already hitting a fever-pitch with some activists going as far as flinging tomato soup at a Van Gough painting to draw attention to the impact of fossil fuels, but also rising costs.

“These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” Dimon said.

US cardholders agree with Dimon. Auriemma’s research found that 80% believe the US will enter a recession within the next 2 years. And this belief is changing attitudes towards spending. Over nine-in-ten of those who think it is ‘very likely’ that the US will enter a recession say they have changed their spending behavior because of rising costs.

“The UK’s cost-of-living crisis has gained media attention for the better part of the year, and the US may not be far behind,” says Holmes. “Dimon’s assertion highlights the delicate state of the economy, and US consumers have already begun to feel the effects. Looking to the UK as an example, US issuers and merchants can expect some notable changes to spending over the next year.”

Survey Methodology

Cardbeat US

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the US by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma from August-September 2022, among 80o+ adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing between sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ± 5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed nor did the respondents know the criteria for qualification.

Cardbeat UK

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the UK by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma from April-May 2022, among 80o+ adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing between sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ± 5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed nor did the respondents know the criteria for qualification.

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4 Things You Need to Know About Cryptocurrency Today

(New York, NY) Bitcoin has been around for over a decade but continues to find its footing with consumers less familiar with it. Famously first used to purchase Papa John’s pizza in 2010, the cryptocurrency’s value has grown from $725 in 2015 to over $64,000 as of this writing, creating some investment winners and losers along the way. Auriemma Group’s latest issue of Mobile Pay Tracker investigated consumers’ relationship with Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general, uncovering who knows about it, who has it, what they’re using it for, how they’d like to use it in the future, and more.

1. Lack of understanding prevents cryptocurrency ubiquity.

Cryptocurrency has captured mainstream attention since its launch, but few consumers truly understand how it works—74% say they are a cryptocurrency novice. While some may be able to speak about it generally, its unlikely your average cryptocurrency holder is explaining the blockchain to their friends. Overall, though, nearly everyone (96%) has at least heard of cryptocurrency, highlighting just how culturally significant it has become during its relatively short tenure.

“As a payments ecosystem, cryptocurrency will need to become more widely understood for it to truly flourish,” says Jaclyn Holmes, Director of Research at Auriemma Group. “But low levels of understanding may be enough for a casual investment, even if the currency is far from becoming the decentralized alternative to cash.”

2. About one-in-six consumers currently own a cryptocurrency.

Age plays a notable role in cryptocurrency ownership, with some Gen X and Baby Boomer consumers likely hesitant to use it as an investment vehicle due to its volatility. With more time to absorb the ebbs and flows of the market and more openness to emerging payment types, Gen Z and Millennial cardholders are more likely to hold cryptocurrency (25%-30%).

“Not only do younger cardholders have the advantage of time when it comes to cryptocurrency investing,” says Holmes. “The group is also generally more open to novel technologies and approaches in the payments space. We’ve seen it with mobile payments, P2P payments, contactless technology, and more.”

Still, without high levels of understanding, 57% of those who own cryptocurrency say it comprises less than one-quarter of their overall savings/investment portfolio. Though thousands of cryptocurrencies are in circulation, Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum are the most owned among consumers (7-11%).

3. Those with cryptocurrency want more.

Looking ahead, one-quarter of consumers are interested in buying or receiving cryptocurrency in the next 12 months. This figure increases to 81% among those who currently hold cryptocurrency. Even those who used to hold cryptocurrency show increased interest (49%), which exemplifies the largely positive experience those who have ever held it have had with the product.

“While traditionally bought and sold proactively, we’ve noticed passive opportunities for cryptocurrency acquisition sprouting up across the payments space. Venmo, for example, now allows its users to redeem their funds for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, or Bitcoin Cash,” says Holmes. “It wouldn’t be surprising if it became a common redemption option for credit card rewards programs.”

In fact, cryptocurrency as a cash back reward is of interest to one-third of consumers, while those who currently hold cryptocurrency are even more interested (75%). That isn’t to say cryptocurrency rewards will become table stakes, but they could certainly become a program sweetener, particularly for younger cardholders looking for a low-risk way to participate in the space.

4. It’s considered a long-term investment, not liquid funds.

Though cryptocurrency can sometimes appear to be a get-rich-quick scheme, the reality is that those who hold it broadly think of it as a long-term (38%), not a short-term (13%) investment. Still, knowledge remains key. Losing the errant dollar to a defunct cryptocurrency may not change one’s financial future, but an overzealous investor could lose a lot of money quickly, like this Shanghai investor who purchased Squid Game crypto.

“Some consumers simply play around with cryptocurrency to see what happens, but this could become a high-risk endeavor for those offering up their life savings,” says Holmes. “Issuers can play in this space by offering their cardholders the opportunity to buy into cryptocurrency without such a large price tag—using rewards points to purchase smaller portions of trusted cryptocurrency providers.”

Without the infrastructure to accept cryptocurrency as a form of payment at the point-of-sale, it will largely be seen as an investment product. Few (14%) see cryptocurrency as liquid funds for purchases, but if presented with the option to use theirs for a purchase at the point-of-sale, about half are likely.

Why should banks care about cryptocurrency?

While cryptocurrency is still relatively new and transaction volume remains low for the industry, it is undoubtedly a growing space. Those looking to play in the space will need to remain conscious of evolving regulation to ensure compliance needs are met. Still, banks and issuers can act as a refuge for consumers looking to dip their toe in without the exposure that comes with committing their hard-earned dollars to the investment. Providing cardholders the option to earn or redeem their account rewards as cryptocurrency allows them to passively participate in the space in a way that feels lower-risk, particularly for those new and just looking to play around.

Survey Methodology

Mobile Pay Tracker

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the US by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma Group (Auriemma) in July 2021 among 2,003 adult mobile pay eligible credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed for both is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing among sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ±5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed, nor did respondents know the criteria for qualifying.

About Auriemma Group

For more than 35 years, Auriemma’s mission has been to empower clients with authoritative data and actionable insights. Our team comprises recognized experts in four primary areas: operational effectiveness, consumer research, co-brand partnerships, and corporate finance. Our business intelligence and advisory services give clients access to the data, expertise and tools they need to navigate an increasingly complex environment and maximize their performance. Auriemma serves the consumer financial services ecosystem from our offices in New York City and London. For more information, call Jaclyn Holmes at (+1) 646-454-4200.

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Buy Now, Pay Later Usage Increases as Provider Options Expand

(New York, NY) Buy Now, Pay Later plans have reinvigorated the centuries old installment payment concept, now allowing shoppers to split payments for small and large purchases alike, particularly online. Auriemma Group has been researching this space in their Payments Report study since 2018, as new providers entered the space, rolling out their own unique spin on the offering.

Buy Now, Pay Later has gained wide visibility in recent years thanks to celebrity and influencer led marketing campaigns. Providers such as American Express and Klarna enlisted everyone from Tina Fey and Snoop Dogg to more niche personalities like Celeste Barber and Trixie Mattel in expansive ad campaigns. Since this advertising push, other bank-branded solutions (like Citi Flex Plan and My Chase Plan), and offerings from FinTechs such as Affirm, PayPal, QuadPay, Afterpay, and Sezzle have entered and redefined the space.

The widening provider field has created increased awareness, opportunity, and exposure for these products. Between Q1-2019 and Q1-2021, Auriemma’s research shows a 10+ percentage point increase in debit cardholders offered a Buy Now, Pay Later plan in-store or online. And most of these consumers find the plans attractive.

“It has become common for shoppers to see a Buy Now, Pay Later option at checkout,” says Jaclyn Holmes, Director of Research at Auriemma Group. “Online, these buttons become subtle reminders for consumers, and reinforce them as a viable payment option, especially when offered at checkout for a brand they trust.”

Take rates on Buy Now, Pay Later also increased significantly over the last couple years. More than half of those offered Buy Now, Pay Later in a physical store (56%) or online (51%) say they enrolled in the option, again representing 10+ percentage point increases since Q1-2019. These increases parallel the expanding field of options available to shoppers at the point of sale.

While merchants have traditionally been the most common provider of installment plans at the point-of-sale, more recent data from Auriemma Group shows that the FinTech Buy Now, Pay Later providers offering these short-term solutions are closing the gap. However, merchants will continue to play an integral role in the adoption of these providers – over half of debit cardholders agree that being partnered with well-known or trusted retailers is paramount when it comes to feeling comfortable and secure in using the product.

“While merchant trust is playing an influential role in Buy Now, Pay Later adoption, these offerings are also impacting the merchant’s ticket size and shoppers’ likelihood to purchase with a merchant again,” says Holmes. “This shows that a positive Buy Now, Pay Later experience can create a halo effect for the brands offering them. And with Buy Now, Pay Later becoming increasingly common and recognizable, consumers may come to expect it as a payment option rather than a sweetener.”

Survey Methodology

The Payments Report

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the US by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma Group (Auriemma) in March 2021 among 800 adult debit cardholders. The number of interviews completed for both is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing among sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ±5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed, nor did respondents know the criteria for qualifying. The average interview length was 19 minutes.

About Auriemma Group

For more than 35 years, Auriemma’s mission has been to empower clients with authoritative data and actionable insights. Our team comprises recognized experts in four primary areas: operational effectiveness, consumer research, co-brand partnerships, and corporate finance. Our business intelligence and advisory services give clients access to the data, expertise and tools they need to navigate an increasingly complex environment and maximize their performance. Auriemma serves the consumer financial services ecosystem from our offices in New York City and London. For more information, call Jaclyn Holmes at (+1) 646-454-4200.

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Do Cardholders Want Second Look or Credit Help Program Options?

(New York, NY) Second look products provide credit card applicants the opportunity to acquire a card more aligned with their financial standing, often without having to undergo another full application process.  Auriemma Group’s latest issues of Cardbeat US® and The Payments Report uncovered how likely applicants are to take these secondary offers, and how interested they would be in programs that give them suggestions on how to improve their application before reapplying.

Less than one-fifth (16%) of credit cardholders report being offered a different card than they applied for after being declined. However, the take rate for these offers is very high, with 69% of those offered accepting the second look option.

“This high acceptance rate for secondary credit products highlights the need for credit by below prime customer segments,” says Carrie Luciano, Manager of Partnerships at Auriemma Group. “Many are willing to accept an alternative credit product if they were referred by the card they initially applied for.”

Auriemma’s research also found that while familiarity was an important factor when accepting second look card offers, those who have had an application rejected in the past year may be more open to a lesser-known provider. About half of credit cardholders (48%) believe a lesser-known issuer would offer a more attractive product than a known issuer—this figure increases to 72% when looking at those who have been rejected.

“For merchants, offering an alternative second look credit product provides a means to boost topline sales and improves the otherwise negative customer experience of being declined—by facilitating credit for those who need it,” says Luciano. “Second look programs also have an ancillary benefit of acting as a credit building tool for applicants who often get rejected.”

While second look programs provide applicants with alternative offers, there is appetite for programs that help consumers improve the approval odds and reapply. The Path to Apple Card program provides this opportunity to applicants Goldman Sachs believes could meet the application requirements if the program is completed. Once the program is successfully completed, applicants are invited to reapply for the Apple Card.

Auriemma’s research found that 48% of cardholders would be interested in enrolling in a program that would help them improve their application if it led to them being reconsidered for that card after a 6-month period. Interest in such a program was driven by those with FICO scores below 670 and revolvers.

“Credit help programs, like the Path to Apple Card program, offer a way to keep applicants engaged with their desired card product, even if their application initially falls below par,” says Luciano. “While second look offers solve for an immediate credit need, credit help programs could be attractive to those willing to wait.”

Second look and credit help program offerings are on the path to ubiquity—with elements that satisfy consumer need and create opportunities for issuer engagement. Providing them as a secondary option circumvents the potentially negative rejection experience and allows applicants another opportunity to access credit, either with a new provider or with their primary option following some application improvements.

With over 30 years of experience crafting profitable, long-lasting partnerships in the Cards and Payments industry, Auriemma and a history covering second look programs, Auriemma is well suited to assist with your partnership or research needs in this area. Contact Auriemma at (+1) 646-454-4200 to learn more.

Survey Methodology

Cardbeat US

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the US by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma Group (Auriemma) in September 2020 among 813 adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed for both is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing among sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ±5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed, nor did respondents know the criteria for qualifying. The average interview length was 17 minutes.

The Payments Report

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the US by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma in September 2020, among 821 adult debit cardholders. The number of interviews completed on a monthly basis is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing between sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ± 5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed nor did the respondents know the criteria for qualification. The average interview length was 26 minutes.

About Auriemma Group

For more than 30 years, Auriemma’s mission has been to empower clients with authoritative data and actionable insights. Our team comprises recognized experts in four primary areas: operational effectiveness, consumer research, co-brand partnerships, and corporate finance. Our business intelligence and advisory services give clients access to the data, expertise and tools they need to navigate an increasingly complex environment and maximize their performance. Auriemma serves the consumer financial services ecosystem from our offices in New York City and London. For more information, call Jaclyn Holmes (Research) or Carrie Luciano (Partnerships) at (+1) 646-454-4200.

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Cardholders Are Missing Payments—Here’s How Payment Holidays and Accommodations Can Help

(New York, NY and London, UK) COVID-19 has put additional financial strain on cardholders globally, but some issuers are trying to lessen the immediate burden. Auriemma Group’s latest issues of Cardbeat US and UK uncover how the pandemic could be affecting on-time payments, which accommodations issuers are offering consumers to help ease the strain, and how card rotation is being impacted as a result.

While missing payments is not exclusive to COVID-19, wage cuts, job loss, and other unexpected financial stressors could make missed or late payments more common. According to Auriemma’s research, about one-sixth of cardholders in both markets say they have missed a payment over the last 6 months. During this time, unemployment figures in both regions increased, with many cardholders needing government aid. However, credit card issuers in both geographies are finding creative ways to assist cardholders through this unprecedented time.

Payment Holidays Provide Short-Term Relief

One of the many ways UK card issuers are helping relieve payment pressure for their cardholders is by offering payment holidays, which allows cardholders to miss monthly payments without penalty. Auriemma’s research found that 20% of UK credit cardholders were aware of the option to take a payment holiday from their issuer, and 33% of them accepted the offer.

The high take-rate is unsurprising given the circumstance. Pandemic-adjacent reasons are most often cited for their acceptance, including wanting to keep money in their bank account and that it would help with cash flow.

“Payment holidays offer a temporary solution for an immediate problem,” says Jaclyn Holmes, Director at Auriemma Group. “And while the accommodation has become a necessary offering for high street banks in this moment, issuers will need to determine and communicate its intended tenure before it becomes table stakes for their cardholders.”

Long-Term Accommodations Chart a Corrective Course

While payment holidays offer a short-term fix, impacted cardholders can be transitioned to other accommodations meant to improve their financial standing in the long-term. In the US, 40% of cardholders have been offered at least one of the accommodations tested in Auriemma’s study (e.g., a reduction in their monthly minimum payments or interest rate, waived interest charges, forbearance options, hardship programs)within the past 6 months.

According to Auriemma’s study, the top offers include increasing credit card limits (20%), offering hardship programs (17%), and providing forbearance options (16%). These accommodations are popular among those offered them, with over half accepting.

“Offering payment accommodations provides a halo effect for your brand,” says Holmes. “Those offered a payment accommodation say they felt more positively about their card issuer as a result, which, along with attractive rewards and benefits, could influence card selection when making a purchase.”

Accommodations and Attractive Rewards Could Impact Card Selection

Over six-in-ten cardholders in both regions report using multiple payment cards in the past 30 days. These individuals are also more likely than their counterparts who used a single payment card to have taken either a payment accommodation or a payment holiday. And while goodwill derived from payment accommodations has an ancillary influence on which card is chosen in the near-term, attractive rewards and benefits remain the main drivers of card choice, regardless of locale.

“When the dust settles, consumers struggling financially will look back on this time and remember which issuers had their back” says Holmes. “Rewards and benefits continue to be critical factors in card selection, but they’re not the only consideration at the moment. Issuers who give their cardholders both payment flexibility and relevant benefits during these uncertain times will be best suited to secure or maintain their top-of-wallet position.”

Survey Methodology

Cardbeat US

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the US by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma Group (Auriemma) in June 2020 among 811 adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed for both is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing among sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ±5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed, nor did respondents know the criteria for qualifying. The average interview length was 22 minutes.

Cardbeat UK

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the UK by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma in July 2020, among 800 adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed on a monthly basis is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing between sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ± 5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed nor did the respondents know the criteria for qualification. The average interview length was 20 minutes.

About Auriemma Group

For more than 30 years, Auriemma’s mission has been to empower clients with authoritative data and actionable insights. Our team comprises recognized experts in four primary areas: operational effectiveness, consumer research, co-brand partnerships, and corporate finance. Our business intelligence and advisory services give clients access to the data, expertise and tools they need to navigate an increasingly complex environment and maximize their performance. Auriemma serves the consumer financial services ecosystem from our offices in New York City and London. For more information, call Jaclyn Holmes at (+1) 646-454-4200.

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Artificial Intelligence Could Speed Up Live Chat, But Many Want a Human Touch

Many cardholders expect to talk with a live agent when interacting via live chat. For the tool to be viewed as successful, however, cardholders expect it to seamlessly solve their issues and provide easy connection to a live agent when needed.

34% of debit cardholders say they have used live chat. Of them, 64% believe they communicated with a human throughout the full interaction and only slightly fewer say they expect to interact with a human from start-to-finish. Yet, the most common activities that have been attempted via live chat could be completed via an artificial intelligence tool:

  • Checking an account balance
  • Reviewing transactions
  • Activating new/reissued cards
  • Checking the status of a payment

 

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Auriemma Talks POS Installment Plans with NBC DFW

Auriemma’s Jaclyn Holmes discusses our recent point-of-sale installment plan data:

Full article available on nbcdfw.com.

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4 Ways COVID-19 is Creating a New Normal for Consumers

(New York, NY) COVID-19 changed consumer purchasing behavior in the short-term, but will changes be long-lasting or temporary? It is a question often asked within the payments industry, and one that Auriemma Group’s research has been asking consumers for months. Auriemma’s latest Mobile Pay Tracker study (fielded April-May 2020) uncovered that the answer may be a little bit of both—purchase frequency could level, but preferred methods, channels, and services may shift to create a new normal going forward.

1. Shopping habits will likely level out, but methods may change

In the early days of COVID-19 consumer spend was reoriented to household purchases (e.g., food, cleaning supplies). While specific categories of purchases saw notable spikes, spend overall declined. Auriemma’s research found that in April and May two-thirds (65%) of cardholders said they were spending less over the past 30 days than they would have before COVID-19. When asked about the next 30 days, however, this figure drops to 44%, and a similar proportion (42%) expect their spend to return to pre-COVID-19 levels by that point.

Although spend may return to normal, there may be a new normal for how consumers make payments. More consumers are trialing contactless and mobile payments than ever before, and some are shifting their purchase channel preferences. For example, consumers have historically preferred in-store shopping for groceries, and while most still do, a notable 31% now say they prefer using digital channels (i.e., websites, mobile apps) to make grocery purchases.

“COVID-19 has given consumers strong incentive to try new payment methods and purchase channels,” says Jaclyn Holmes, Director of Research at Auriemma Group. “The disruption it has caused may be the catalyst that propels more innovative shopping and payment experiences moving forward.”

2. COVID-19 has not only changed how consumers shop, but also where

Staple household items were in high-demand at the start of COVID-19, and the need for those items trumped merchant and brand loyalty. Many consumers said stores they regularly shop at were out of many items (76%), that they needed to switch from their preferred brand to purchase an item they needed (67%), and that they have visited stores they don’t normally shop at to find what they need (35%).

This sentiment extends to the online shopping experience, with 40% of those shoppers saying they have tried shopping with new merchants or websites since the COVID-19 outbreak. Overall, COVID-19 has motivated consumers to try different merchants, items, and experiences. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of consumers say they are willing to try new ways to shop, including using apps and curbside pick-up.

“Brand loyalty is often a strong purchase motivator, both when purchasing products and selecting a merchant,” says Holmes. “In recent months, many consumers have tried new merchants and products out of necessity. While some will understandably revert back to their preferred brands, some have expressed they’ve been pleasantly surprised by these alternatives and will continue to utilize or purchase from them looking ahead..”

3. Some industries and products will thrive, while others will struggle

With consumers staying and/or working from home, there were many services that gained popularity. Unsurprisingly, consumers reported increased usage of video chat platforms, online food delivery, and online workouts. At the same time, however, cardholders report a notable decrease in usage of deal/discount services or apps.

Groupon has been hit particularly hard—in February, the company announced they were shifting their focus away from products and back to experiences. The timing was unfortunate, given that just a month later consumer spend shifted away from in-person experiences because of COVID-19. By March, the company reported decreased demand for their offerings and significant increases in refund levels.

4. Consumers aiming to support local businesses may skip third-party apps

Third-party apps like Groupon and Seamless may also see decreases in usage among those aiming to support local businesses. 31% of consumers have donated money to local businesses and 24% have purchased gift cards to support their local businesses during this time.

Additionally, consumer awareness for hidden fees and commissions are driving some to purchase directly from the end merchant. Auriemma’s research identified that some consumers avoid using food ordering or delivery apps to better support local businesses. One 33-year-old male said:

“We’ve been bothered by the commission the food delivery apps are making so we are making a conscious effort to order directly from the restaurant. It had crossed my mind prior to the outbreak but now, it is more top of mind.”

COVID-19’s Overall Impact

COVID-19 will create some long-lasting impacts on consumer behavior, but some behaviors will return to normal. While overall spending is expected to lift as people get back to work and regain confidence in the economy, where they spend their money, what they spend money on, and the methods they use to make purchases may change. Issuers may see further increases in contactless payments and digital spend, as in-person purchasing (particularly via swiping or dipping)  remains low.

“Now more than ever consumer behaviors and attitudes are in a state of flux,” says Holmes. “Our continued research into the impact of COVID-19 will give us a forward look into these shifts and provide a roadmap for future expectations.”

 

Survey Methodology

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the US by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma Group (Auriemma) in April/May 2020 among 2,022 adult Apple, Google, or Samsung Pay eligible credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed for both is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing among sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ±5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed, nor did respondents know the criteria for qualifying. The average interview length was 27 minutes.

Additionally, ten in-depth interviews (IDIs) were conducted in May 2020 via telephone. All were recruited from the quantitative web survey from parts of the country that had seen at least some impact (either business closures or social distancing rules). The goal was to understand the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on shopping behaviors and attitudes.

About Auriemma Group

For more than 30 years, Auriemma’s mission has been to empower clients with authoritative data and actionable insights. Our team comprises recognized experts in four primary areas: operational effectiveness, consumer research, co-brand partnerships, and corporate finance. Our business intelligence and advisory services give clients access to the data, expertise and tools they need to navigate an increasingly complex environment and maximize their performance. Auriemma serves the consumer financial services ecosystem from our offices in New York City and London. For more information, call Jaclyn Holmes at (+1) 646-454-4200.

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Payment Behaviors Shift as US and UK Consumers Adjust to COVID-19 Fallout

(New York, NY and London, UK) COVID-19 has significantly impacted most aspects of consumer’s lives, including how they shop and make payments. People are concerned for their finances, their health, and are uncertain about the future. Auriemma Group conducted studies in the US and the UK to understand how payment activity and expectations are changing, and what issuers can do to meet this unprecedented moment in our history.

How Payment Activity Is Changing

Across both markets, about seven-in-ten consumers are anxious about the future. Many are specifically concerned about their personal finances, especially in the US (81% vs. 67% UK). This worry, paired with stay-at-home guidance and closures of non-essential businesses have altered the way many consumers make purchases, what they are purchasing, and their purchasing power.

COVID-19 has caused many to shift spend online. Nearly eight-in-ten consumers are visiting fewer businesses and, as a result, many are placing more online orders than usual (45% US vs. 38% UK). However, most have reduced their non-essential spend, particularly in the UK (72% vs. 65% US).

Spend categories and payment methods have seen immediate shifts because of COVID-19. As a category, consumers understandably noted rises in grocery spend, with many saying they stocked up on food or household items (60% US vs. 49% UK). In addition, many are making more purchases with contactless or mobile payment options (34% US vs. 45% UK). This is unsurprisingly greater in the UK, given their tenure with contactless payments.

Changes in spend are similar across geographies. Over four-in-ten say they are spending less than typical (42% US vs. 47% UK), while only slightly fewer say spend stayed the same (41% vs. 35%). The remaining one-fifth say they are spending more than typical, and the average increase in monthly spend among that group was similar across both countries ($524 vs. £463).

“While sudden shifts in behavior are to be expected, the bigger question is whether these changes will be long-lasting,” says Jaclyn Holmes, Director of Research at Auriemma Group. “Many consumers are trying new purchasing channels and methods out of necessity, and some who were previously averse to online shopping are finding the experience to be surprisingly enjoyable. Only time will tell if these options truly become ubiquitous as a result.”

How Expectations Are Changing

Financial institutions play a key role in quelling the anxiety consumers in both markets face. From a communications perspective, banks and issuers are performing strongly. About three-quarters in both geographies say they are satisfied with the COVID-related communications coming from their primary bank or credit card issuer.

In addition to strong communication, consumers expect payment leniency. Over seven-in-ten said they expect their financial institutions to be understanding of late payments at this time. With some consumers unable to meet their payment obligations, about one-in-ten say they have missed a credit card, bill, or loan payment because of COVID-19.

Most issuers are meeting consumer expectation and waiving missed payment and late fees, but a handful report that the fee was not waived. This is especially true of UK consumers—36% who were charged a fee did not have it waived (vs. 27% US).

“Waiving fees is one way to show consumers that you are in their corner,” says Holmes. “And while that may not be fiscally possible for all issuers, offering support in other ways—be it via online tools and information, offers, or exemplary customer service—could go a long way to showing cardholders that you have compassion for their situation.”

What Issuers Can Do

Since its outbreak, COVID-19 has brought about many questions that lack answers. From health to the economy, there is a lot of uncertainty in what lies ahead, and customers are looking to their card issuers for guidance and reassurance. Issuers aiming to present a customer-first approach may want to communicate the following:

  1. Actions taken to help ease payment burdens (e.g., waived fees, lower rates, extended grace periods)
  2. Recommended customer service channels or resources (e.g., new channels aimed to reduce wait times, self-servicing options, updated FAQ pages)
  3. Beneficial information to aid the shopping experience (e.g., how to reduce direct contact using contactless or mobile payment options, merchant partner deals to help them save, how to maximize rewards)
  4. Steps to take when requesting a refund or filing a dispute

“Given how quickly things are changing, finding relevant and up-to-date information can become challenging for consumers,” say Holmes. “By providing thoughtful and consistent communications, issuers can help reduce rather than contribute to the mounting concern consumers are expressing.”

Survey Methodology

Cardbeat US

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the US by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma Group (Auriemma) in March/April 2020 among 807 adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed for both is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing among sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ±5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed, nor did respondents know the criteria for qualifying. The average interview length was 25 minutes.

Cardbeat UK

This Auriemma Group study was conducted online within the UK by an independent field service provider on behalf of Auriemma in April 2020, among 809 adult credit cardholders. The number of interviews completed on a monthly basis is sufficient to allow for statistical significance testing between sub-groups at the 95% confidence level ± 5%, unless otherwise noted. The purpose of the research was not disclosed nor did the respondents know the criteria for qualification.

About Auriemma Group

For more than 30 years, Auriemma’s mission has been to empower clients with authoritative data and actionable insights. Our team comprises recognized experts in four primary areas: operational effectiveness, consumer research, co-brand partnerships, and corporate finance. Our business intelligence and advisory services give clients access to the data, expertise and tools they need to navigate an increasingly complex environment and maximize their performance. Auriemma serves the consumer financial services ecosystem from our offices in New York City and London. For more information, call Jaclyn Holmes at (+1) 646-454-4200.

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Auriemma 2019 Annual Letter: Year in Review and What’s Coming in 2020

December 2019

Welcome to the 2019 version of our annual market update. I wrote the first such letter thirty years ago, in 1990! My, how times have changed.

While we typically talk about industry happenings and then pivot to updates in our own company, we are going to turn that around this year. I think you’ll agree it adds a bit of perspective to this year’s commentary.

Despite the negative connotation implied by Juliet when she proclaimed, “A rose, by any other name would smell as sweet,” I think it is a fitting quote to describe the state of all things “Auriemma.” Last year, I told you we were changing our name by dropping the word “Consulting.” Well, we did that. But then we did more. Many of you have heard the news by now. But, I know not everyone received, or read, our email communications in August.

While we were wrapping up the process of our name change in late 2018 and early 2019, we were also beginning a process to bring on some outside investment in order to expand and improve our offerings to the market. That effort was consummated on August 1st. As a result, we split into two companies… Auriemma Roundtables, which will operate our US Roundtables practice, and Auriemma Group, which will operate our Partnerships, Research, and Finance lines of business, as well as our UK Roundtables.

Two new presidents have been named. Tom LaMagna for Auriemma Roundtables and Mark Jackson for Auriemma Group. Both have been part of our team for many years and have been gearing up and being groomed for these appointments. I’m excited to pass on the baton(s)!

With that as the backdrop, here are some of the stories and trends we’ve been tracking and expect to continue into 2020.

This was a strong, but mixed, year from a macroeconomic perspective. In the U.S., the Dow hit record highs this year, and the U.S. added 266,000 jobs in November, outpacing predictions. U.S. unemployment is at a record low, and there may still be room for growth, given that labor force participation remains below pre-recession levels. It’s a similar picture across the Atlantic, with UK employment at record highs and a healthy growth in household spending, thanks to stronger wage growth.

Other factors, however, lead to a more uncertain economic picture. The Federal Reserve cut rates three time this year. Trade tensions are impacting business and consumer confidence. Business investment has slumped due to global economic slowdowns and uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S.-China trade war. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.7 percent in October, while revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.7 percent, and non-revolving credit increased at a 6.7 percent annual rate, according to ABA Banking Journal. In the UK, the number of job vacancies have started to fall in 2019, and the number of jobs created have decreased, indicating the labor market is potentially cooling. But with many consumers shrugging off the negative indicators the industry pores over, I tend to agree with Michael Corbat that the biggest threat to the economy might be talking ourselves into the next recession.

For their part, industry leaders are thoroughly prepared, with many anticipating a mild recession in the next 12 to 18 months. Clients are interrogating key internal metrics to discern false signals from true indicators, including changes in payment ratios, minimum payment frequency and early delinquency rates. Many are already tightening on credit exposure in some portfolios, and anticipate some future tightening going into 2020. Recession playbooks for pricing, term adjustments and collections/recovery strategies are in place—although triggers have not yet been tripped. Indeed, predicting the future recession appears to be more art than science, with many questioning if the typical indicators – unemployment, for example – are really the ones to be watching in the upcoming cycle.

Delinquencies, a traditional indicator, are slightly on the increase for credit cards. However, the future direction of travel is anyone’s guess. This is clear in the fact that just over half (56%) of issuers in Auriemma Roundtables’ Card Collections group expect an increased delinquency rate going into 2020. The other half expect delinquencies to be flat or down next year. Certainly, nothing in the data reflects systemic alarm or anything fundamentally surprising. In fact, delinquency levels are aligned with industry expectations, based on vintage and composition of portfolios. Additionally, because of the lessons learned from 2008, there’s a more cautionary approach to underwriting in this pre-recession era, and fundamental exposure is more limited than in the past.

Delinquencies for auto lenders have increased steadily across all credit tiers in 2019, although the bulk of delinquencies are unsurprisingly in subprime. The increase is a byproduct of strategic decisions to expand acceptance criteria, rather than an indicator of broader market conditions. To underscore the point, 75% of Auriemma Roundtables’ Auto Collections group members say 2019 net credit losses are below forecast, showcasing the success of collections operations and loss mitigation programs.

What remains to be fully seen is any impact that could be felt amid a downturn if the CFPB’s proposed debt collection rules go into effect, which would cut the number of call attempts per day for most lenders and collectors. In preparation, many first-party collectors are ramping down their call caps and deploying self-service and digitized collections tools. With a potential recession and this proposed regulatory action, the stars are aligning to make investments in more strategic contact management.

This proposed rule represents one of the more significant pieces of proposed legislation from the Bureau, which has been quieter than in years past. (Of course, that posture could change yet again, depending on the outcome of the next election.) While the industry has seen fewer big-ticket enforcement actions from the CFPB this year, there’s concern of growing coalitions among state AGs and legislators who are working to fill the perceived regulatory void. For example, state litigation is attacking banks’ preemption and rate exportation rights, which will need to be solved by federal legislation supporting the concept of “valid when made.” There has also been tremendous scrambling to comply with the data-centric California Consumer Protection Act, which goes into effect January 1 and could very well be adopted by other states going forward.

The U.K.’s regulatory scene has been quite active: Persistent Debt is causing waves, GDPR has claimed its largest big-ticket enforcement actions to date, and the deadline for compliance with PSD2 has passed with several FIs not fully compliant. Of course, there are the results of the UK’s general election – a sweeping win for the Conservative party, signaling an imminent departure from the European Union. The pound surged in trading against the dollar and the euro in response to the vote. Businesses will be working through operational challenges associated with an 2020 exit, and consumers could respond to uncertainty with changes in spending, saving and a potential shift from credit onto debit. A no-deal Brexit could be bad news for jobs, wages or both. Certainty, in any guise, is likely still months away.

Overall, it’s been a strong year for credit card lenders. While falling interest rates may have squeezed fixed-rate lending, credit cards have held strong as an asset class, helping fuel the industry’s solid financial results this year.

Additional positive news: Year-to-date gross and net fraud rates have remained stable, with the average gross fraud rate at 0.27% and the average net fraud rate at 0.13%, according to Auriemma Roundtables’ Card Fraud Control benchmarking. Meanwhile, 85% of Roundtable members reported a flat or decreasing gross fraud rate between FY ‘18 and YTD ’19. As EMV cards have become ubiquitous in the marketplace, the security benefit of the technology has been realized and is reflected in the normalization seen within the distribution of fraud types.

While fraud losses have stabilized, fraud remains a painful reality to consumers, with data breaches and the associated financial ramifications becoming routine. The everyday nature of fraud means consumers are often not proactive in taking preventative measures, with more than one-quarter of cardholders feeling comfortable making online purchases from unfamiliar websites, and more than four-in-ten of cardholders reporting that they haven’t changed the password for their debit or credit card account in over a year, according to Auriemma Research. Other precautions, like fraud alerts, identity theft protection, and two-factor authentication are not overwhelmingly used by consumers, according to the research. (Incidentally, this kind of irrationality is exactly what Auriemma Roundtables is looking to understand in its Behavioral Economics Initiative with Duke University’s Center for Advanced Hindsight – a joint venture focused on identifying opportunities to shift consumer behavior for more positive financial outcomes.)

Of course, the Auriemma Group team has remained active in the co-brand arena. As I shared last year, marquee co-brand deals have slowed in 2019, thanks to the increasing prevalence of long-term program contracts. We expect 2020 will be more active, with many programs preparing to go to market. Certainly, 2019 saw pockets of action – including several de novo airline programs (Air Canada, Emirates, and Norwegian Airlines) and an increase in mid-contract negotiations. The opportunities for card issuers during this period of reduced market activity tend to revolve around focusing more closely on existing programs. For some, this includes testing innovations – such as installment payment plan offerings, omnichannel experiences, and data analytics insights. Brands also have opportunities to keep programs fresh by regularly revisiting key program features, such as value propositions and marketing approaches. Meanwhile, with the challenges in the current retail environment, we’re also seeing a diversification within the private label space, with brands moving toward POS installment lending and issuers offering other lending categories, such as medical financing.

Of course, there were new cards, too – perhaps most notably, the Apple Card, which debuted this year to tremendous buzz. (An introductory video for the Apple card uploaded in tandem with its late-March announcement has racked up more than 25 million views… easily more than ten times the number of views for similar videos for other cards.) Although Apple obviously offers a physical card, the product’s core value proposition has been specifically designed to increase usage and adoption of its mobile payment capabilities. As with many mobile offerings, it’s still unclear how successful Apple’s push will be.

Despite the rumors of its inevitable demise, plastic has continued to thrive during the dawn of mobile payments. Some argue that the increase in contactless card availability may actually migrate some mobile-friendly consumers back to physical payments, according to Auriemma Research. This year, contactless  made a meaningful push to mainstream acceptance in the U.S., thanks in part to major transit systems’ acceptance. While it’s not exactly a new technology, the POS experience seems to have improved drastically from previous incarnations.

The simplicity of contactless’ tap is just one example of a customer experience making or breaking a technology. More broadly, a crisp and easy experience has paved the way for an influx of fintechs to sweep both the U.S. and U.K. markets. In the U.S., the unsecured personal loan market continued its dazzling growth, led largely by digital-first fintechs. In e-commerce, snazzy POS financing options like Klarna and Affirm are increasingly popular with consumers who find that borrowing via an installment plan is less intimidating than revolving on a credit card. In the UK, a wave of Challenger Banks, such as Monzo, have developed budgeting tools that are deeply appealing to consumers. Fintechs are eager to garner more market share and have started diversifying into credit cards and other products, such as auto lending. To fuel this growth, fintechs have been bullish on the use of non-traditional data sources, such as utility or cellphone payment information – particularly when scoring consumers in deeper FICO bands or with thin files.

As more data enters the ecosystem however, there are some uncertainties emerging about the integrity of credit reporting. While the vast majority of available information is accurate, reporting complexities and fraudulent consumers are potentially leading to some credit score inflation. In addition, new commercially available scores and alternative data providers will have an unclear impact going forward. To address the reporting complexities, Auriemma Roundtables has spearheaded initiatives with both the CDIA and credit reporting agencies to identify opportunities to improve reporting standards and clarify business processes.

Also distorting the credit reporting environment? An upswing in credit repair agencies enticing consumers to attempt to eliminate or transform negative credit history – often without consumers being fully aware of the process (something the CFPB has taken notice of). It will be crucial for the industry to partner with regulators, such as the FTC and CFPB, to counter predatory players.

While lenders are focused on risk mitigation of all kinds, 2019 has also brought ample opportunities to invest in operational efficiency and automation—areas where both Auriemma Group and Auriemma Roundtables continue to focus energies.

Automation has been more fully deployed in 2019, with speech analytics, AI, machine learning and RPA all focused on eliminating risk and error, increasing efficiency and re-deploying employees toward value-add activities. Banks have rechanneled investment to support these initiatives, with many with new “Transformation” departments popping up. Agile has quickly usurped the traditional waterfall methodology to encourage faster business and technology changes. Automation has made a major breakthrough in credit decisioning across the lending landscape. Speech analytics is being used to tag complaints, identify compliance risk and monitor call quality. Organizations are increasingly using cloud-based technology, including for call recordings and cloud-based dialers. In fraud, machine learning and AI are becoming more prominent, particularly in authentication. And with fraudsters continuing to demonstrate more sophistication and flexibility to overcome authentication hurdles, you can expect more issuers to actively explore solutions like voice biometrics and device fingerprinting in 2020. In collections, alternate collections strategies are actively being expanded, with more than 60% of Roundtable members using one-way texting in pre-chargeoff collections. Debt collections is ripe for further disruption in the UK, with firms looking toward omnichannel engagement tools and testing completely switching off outbound dialing. In customer service, FIs have further nudged customers along the digital migration path, thanks to touch/face ID authentication for mobile logins. IVR systems are being enhanced to drive stronger containment rates, and AI is being explored for real-time call monitoring.

All this investment and change means job transformation is afoot across many functions in all markets – which Auriemma Group will recognize with a new sponsored award at the UK Cards & Payments Awards. The award, Excellence in Operational Innovation, will recognize the card issuer, brand, banking acquirer or payment company that has best demonstrated operational innovation resulting in a best-in class customer experience.

While I expect Auriemma’s two new presidents to push their respective companies well beyond the boundaries I achieved, I don’t expect any significant deviations in the types of business they pursue or the quality of services they provide. The same teams remain in place to deliver value to our clients.

What I do expect however, is that these gentlemen will want to write their own annual updates twelve months from now, thus ending my tenure at 30 years! So, I hope you enjoyed what is likely the last letter from me and look forward, as I do, to reading the words of Mark and Tom next December.

Meanwhile, I thank you again for your patronage and look forward to speaking with you soon.

Cheers!

Michael

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